Republicans will take back the majority this November — and turn the House Republican majority into the House Democratic majority. Democrats will win a handful of Republican seats to extend their hold on the House and reclaim the majority, with Republicans holding a safe, GOP-controlled majority in the Senate. And President Trump will get to claim a major victory in the 2018 midterm elections, putting Republicans back in power in key districts and winning for himself his first big legislative victory of the new Trump era.
For the Republicans, the midterm elections represent a chance for Trump to claim more political success than he has experienced since the 2016 presidential election. But after winning the House in 2010, winning two additional seats in 2012, and re-taking the Senate in 2014, Republicans have had four consecutive losing presidential elections–including a landslide defeat of Obama in 2012. If the midterms resemble the midterms of 2010 and 2016, the Republicans will return to the minority party status they began in 2006 after controlling both chambers of Congress. But they can turn the tide against Democrats if they take back the Senate and the House this November.
Republicans cannot take the majority for granted. The Senate will be closely watched to see if Republicans maintain their narrow numerical advantage over Democrats. The House, however, could remain a safe Republican hold due to a wave of Republican retirements. But Republican retirements are not an indication of victory for the Republicans, and in November, Republicans will have all the tools to flip the House in the midterm election.
For the Republicans, this midterm election is the big one. Republicans will have a shot at one of their big legislative goals after winning the House in the midterm elections. In 2010, Republicans won back the presidency after controlling the House and the Senate as a result of the Republican wave that swept them back into leadership. But in 2012, Republicans made the biggest gains in the Senate, holding on to a majority for only three months before losing to Senate Democrats. Then in 2014, when Democrats won a majority for the first time in eight years, Republicans were not able to extend their control over Congress. Instead, they were wiped out in the Senate.
This time will be different. In the