NOAA makes bullish hurricane forecast for season: 5 to 10 storms, 3 to 6 major hurricanes

For the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expecting a near-normal to above-normal season, including five to 10 hurricanes, three to six of which are expected to be…

NOAA makes bullish hurricane forecast for season: 5 to 10 storms, 3 to 6 major hurricanes

For the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expecting a near-normal to above-normal season, including five to 10 hurricanes, three to six of which are expected to be major hurricanes.

Forecasters predict a hurricane season with a 60 percent chance of above-normal activity, 30 percent chance of near-normal activity and a 10 percent chance of below-normal activity.

The agency’s long-range outlook is based on an average cyclone activity of 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), six hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), two major hurricanes and one major bypass (stronger than a major storm), according to NOAA.

NOAA’s outlook is based on five key models – the ECMWF, GFS, MFS, RPM and North American Climate Computer Model, GEM – and over 4,000 observations, including satellite data, weather balloons and aircraft flights.

NOAA also revised its expectations for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) this year from an equal chance of normal and above-normal activity to more equal chances, which NOAA explained is because its model data is more consistent with its long-term results.

Even though the NAO has not been very active in recent years, the atmospheric conditions that support a neutral NAO still apply, so it will continue to influence hurricane formation.

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