INTERACTIVE: NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane forecast released

This is a video from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of an animated forecast for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season: It has been a particularly active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Since…

INTERACTIVE: NOAA's Atlantic hurricane forecast released

This is a video from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of an animated forecast for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season:

It has been a particularly active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Since June, 14 named storms have been recorded, which is just three shy of the modern-day record, set in 1995 and 2011.

Nine named storms (from tropical storms to hurricanes) made landfall in the US – the most during a single Atlantic hurricane season since 2010, when nine storms made landfall in a single season. This year marks the eighth time that at least nine hurricanes have made landfall in the US – this marks the most in the second-hottest Atlantic hurricane season on record (since 1900). While this year has been record-breaking, 2017 had the second most total hurricanes in a single season (in terms of average-season storm statistics).

Hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November (a reduction in duration due to a lack of El Niño), and does not have a direct correlation with the number of hurricanes in a given year. However, around 30% of the tropical cyclones and hurricanes that form within the Atlantic basin develop during the seven months of the hurricane season.

A track map for the entire 2018 hurricane season (2012 to 2018), as compared to the Atlantic hurricane season of 2001 to 2010:

In keeping with our promise to give you the hurricane season outlook every two years, and now for 2021 – the 21st Atlantic hurricane season – we are announcing a small increase in the numbers of potentially damaging hurricanes expected.

NOAA’s new seasonal forecast is the same as the previous year – the average number of tropical storms and hurricanes for a season is about 11.7 and the season average for hurricanes is 5.8. According to NOAA, the outlook is a prediction of an increase in the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, with an odds of around 1 in 6 that two or more hurricanes will make landfall in the US. Hurricane experts are recommending that, while current sea surface temperatures are above average, there are signs of a cooling trend from the mid-to-late summer months of the year.

We are currently preparing this year’s Atlantic hurricane season forecast for release in early September.

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